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Judging by their choices since this month’s Democratic sweep, both the White House and congressional Republicans are vastly underestimating the party’s risk in 2028 if President Donald Trump remains as unpopular as he is now.

Dazed Republicans picking through the wreckage of their losses may console themselves with the thought that Trump’s dire approval ratings won’t pose as large a threat to the GOP in 2028, since he will be leaving the White House. But history strongly suggests that confidence is misplaced.