President Donald Trump’s advisers aim to make the 2026 midterm election a “choice” rather than a “referendum.” But no matter how much they train the focus on Democrats, the president has a talent for keeping all eyes on him.
The 2026 midterm election reached a familiar juncture this week: the one where we learn the president’s party aims to make it a “choice” rather than a “referendum.”
CNN’s Adam Cancryn reports the White House wants to focus voters on the unattractive alternative that is the Democratic Party rather than on how Americans feel about the quite unpopular President Donald Trump.
Presidents’ parties have pursued a version of this strategy in 2022, 2018, 2014, 2010 and 2006, just to name a few recent midterms.
That history — and Trump’s current morass — suggest it’s a strategy of damage limitation rather than victory.
But there is at least some reason to believe setting up a contrast could potentially soften the blow for Republicans, a little.
The strategy seemed successful the most recent time it was used — in the 2022 midterms, when then-President Joe Biden and his party sought to turn the focus on Republicans amid high inflation from the Covid-19 pandemic.
While the president’s party often loses the midterms, Democrats minimized their losses and had one of the best midterms for a president’s party since the Civil War. They actually gained when it came to Senate, governor’s and state legislative seats.
Perhaps the most telling stat: Exit polls showed the 10% of voters who “somewhat disapproved” of Biden — basically those in the middle of the electorate — still tilted towards Democrats, 49%-45%.
But that election has very much proven the exception. The other four midterm years mentioned above where a version of this strategy was tried — from 2006 through 2018 — were all much worse for the president’s party.
Indeed, midterms are almost always bad for party in the White House for a reason: Americans tend to vote against the president’s party.
And Democrats had a few factors working in their favor in the 2022 election that don’t really exist for Republicans this year.
One was the voter-mobilizing backlash to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Another was that Trump’s base doesn’t tend to turn out nearly as much in elections that don’t feature him. And the third is that Trump, even out of office, was such an ever-present figure that he gave Democrats something concrete to run against — almost like an incumbent president.
In contrast, Republicans this year will struggle to find a single issue or figure to try and define Democrats by, for the simple reason that the party is rather leader-less.
The fact that Republicans are trying this “choice” strategy probably says more about Trump’s political dire straits than its efficacy. With the president as an emerging albatross for the GOP — recent polls show his approval rating falling into rare territory, in the mid-30s — about the best his party can do is convince voters the other side is even worse.
But that doesn’t mean such a strategy can’t help the GOP.
That’s because while Trump is very unpopular, the opposition party is also historically unpopular. The Democratic brand might have recovered a little from its post-2024 funk, but not that much.
Polling has shown Democrats haven’t led by as much on the congressional “generic ballot” — a matchup between a nameless Republican and a nameless Democrat — as history suggests they perhaps should, given the degree of Trump’s problems. Most polls show Democrats lead by around the mid-single digits, which isn’t exactly “blue wave” territory — at least yet.
And Democrats have also struggled to beat Republicans when voters were asked which party was better on some key issues.
For instance, while Trump’s approach to immigration has clearly fallen out of favor, voters have still significantly favored Republicans over Democrats on that issue.
All of that being said, the Democratic brand problem may not matter that much. Even on some of these key issues, things appear to be looking up for the party.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Democrats beating Republicans on the economy for the first time in 16 years, for example. Democrats also did better than they had in years against Republicans on foreign policy, national security and crime – even though they didn’t have big leads on any of them.
And then there’s Trump. No matter how much the White House tries to train the focus on Democrats, the president has a talent for keeping all eyes on him, even when things are not going well.
So to those that would make the election about anything other than him: Good luck with that.
Original source: edition.cnn.com