The sun rises behind the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on October 20.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
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Imagine when the dust settles on the 2026 midterm elections that Democrats haven’t gained a single Senate seat and are stuck at 47.

Now imagine it’s a week after the election, and Democrats have won 55 seats — or even as many 57 — giving them the second-largest Senate majority for either party since 1981.

The distance between those two outcomes isn’t nearly as large as you might think.